run 060Falsified
../lab/runs/060-crossing-polynomial-zeros.mdPrediction(1) The nearest zeros dominate: f₄ ≥ 0.5 on at least six of the eight generators. (2) The disc holds: every zero of every generator satisfies |p_j − 1| ≤ 1.
Falsifierany of — f₄ ≤ 0.2 on at least six of eight (the exponent is a property of the whole zero set, not of the zeros near the fixed point); any zero with |p_j − 1| > 1.05 on any generator (the disc fails). A failed control withdraws the run. Between prediction and falsifier on either clause is unanticipated.
VerdictFALSIFIED 2026-09-29, on clause 2. Both controls passed on the second pass (the zeros rebuild the coefficients to 1e-257; λ from λ = ℓ + p*·Σ 1/(p* − p_j) equals run 058's to every printed digit); the first pass failed on the harness's precision, not the data's, and was discarded. Clause 2 falsified outright: every generator has zeros outside |p − 1| ≤ 1, from 15 of 28 (U′) to 48 of 120 (square), reaching |p_j − 1| = 1.41 (square) to 2.42 (B), far past the 1.05 falsifier. Clause 1 held as written — f₄ ≥ 0.5 on seven of eight (square 0.165; H 1.04, U 1.46, U′ 1.43–2.29, T 0.95, V 0.96, A 1.08, B 1.31) — but the body records that the picture it was meant to test does not: the nearest zeros overshoot the whole sum and farther zeros cancel them.
Sealed 2026-09-29, before any zero of any crossing polynomial was computed (codifier). Known at sealing: every number in run 058, including each generator's λ and p*, and the exact counts a_k in rg058.json, which no one has factored. Not known: ℓ, any zero, S, or any share. The identity for λ is algebra, not a finding; it is the control.
Why the two bets. (1) In the Fisher-zero picture of a phase transition, the exponent is set by how the zeros nearest the critical point pinch toward the real axis, so a few zeros should carry most of S. Against it: these are small polynomials of degree 76–144, where zeros near p = 0 and p = 1 are numerous and each pulls on p* a little; the sum could be spread. (2) A conjecture of this disc shape for reliability polynomials (Brown–Colbourn) is, as the codifier recalls it, false for graphs in general; whether it holds for these planar generators is open, which is why it is a test and not a formality. Neither attribution is relied on; both are to be checked before any note cites them.
What the outcomes mean. Confirmed on (1): the exponent that ordered all eight lattices is local in the complex plane — a handful of zeros near p* — and run 059's correction terms should be read as moving those zeros. Falsified on (1): the exponent is a global statistic of the zero set, and a theory of it must account for every cut and path size at once. On (2): a disc bound, if it holds, confines where the zeros can go under any change to the room, which bounds how far y can move.
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falsifiedResults: R29_crossing_zeros/RESULTS060.md, zeros060.json, stats060.json (commit c5cb5be). cypari2 2.2.4 / PARI 2.17.2 at 250 digits; R(p) rebuilt exactly from rg058.json and matched to its stored power-basis coefficients.
| gen | ℓ | zeros | S = λ − ℓ | f₂ | f₄ | f₈ | max \ | p_j − 1\ | outside disc | nearest zero to p* (dist.) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| square | 8 | 120 | −3.121 | 0.614 | 0.165 | 1.044 | 1.410 | 48 | 0.638 ± 0.233i (0.279) | ||
| H | 8 | 64 | −4.546 | 0.574 | 1.044 | 1.092 | 1.682 | 31 | 0.885 ± 0.253i (0.303) | ||
| U | 8 | 56 | −4.674 | 0.763 | 1.461 | 2.886 | 2.140 | 33 | 0.935 ± 0.209i (0.260) | ||
| U′ | 8 | 28 | −5.977 | 0.947 | 1.43–2.29† | 2.80–3.01† | 2.015 | 15 | 1.118 ± 0.166i (0.241) | ||
| T | 8 | 60 | −5.375 | 0.185 | 0.953 | 2.087 | 1.897 | 31 | 0.883 ± 0.286i (0.291) | ||
| V | 8 | 64 | −4.878 | 0.404 | 0.956 | 0.970 | 2.025 | 31 | 0.899 ± 0.307i (0.345) | ||
| A | 8 | 56 | −5.126 | 0.414 | 1.075 | 1.80–2.17† | 2.064 | 29 | 0.948 ± 0.309i (0.352) | ||
| B | 8 | 60 | −4.825 | 0.745 | 1.309 | 2.391 | 2.415 | 31 | 0.963 ± 0.215i (0.273) |
† a conjugate pair straddles the cut; the range gives the whole-pair counts on either side.
What it settles. The disc bound fails on every generator, by a wide margin; whatever confines these zeros, it is not |p − 1| ≤ 1. And ℓ = 8 on all eight — the shortest crossing path is the straight row in every room (the kept boundary ring guarantees one), so λ = 8 + S and the whole difference between rooms' exponents lives in the root sum S.
What clause 1's pass does not mean. The sealed threshold (f₄ ≥ 0.5) was met on seven of eight, but a share above 1 — f₄ up to 1.46 (U), 1.31 (B), f₈ up to 2.9 — means the nearest zeros pull on p* more than the whole sum does, and farther zeros pull back. The partial sums do not settle; the exponent is a cancellation between near and far zeros, not a few zeros carrying it, and the square (f₄ = 0.165) does not even meet the threshold. The Fisher picture in which zeros pinch the fixed point is a statement about large systems; at generation 1 the nearest zero sits 0.24–0.35 from p*, nowhere near pinching. The next: asks whether composition moves them in.
Note on the first pass. Control (i) first failed at ~1e-17 because cypari2's polroots ignores the global precision unless precision= is passed on the call; the compute chat diagnosed it before reading anything into the data. Filed in OPS.md as a failure mode.
Pointers corrected 2026-10-05 (codifier; no sealed field, score or number is changed). The script: line was written with the seal, before the script existed, and read: script: R29_crossing_zeros/ (to be written by the compute chat). It now names what was written and committed: R29_crossing_zeros/zeros060.py, R29_crossing_zeros/analyze060.py. Found by sync_cases.py's record-field check (docs/REPO-AUDIT.md 5.4).
generated 2026-10-25the lab index