run 066Settled
../lab/runs/066-crossing-sequence-turns-over.mdPredictionCarpets turn over: y₃ < y₂ on at least 7 of the 10 carpets (H, U, U′, T, V, A, B, X, Y, Z), both raw and against y₂ + δ. The square does not: 0.734 ≤ y₃(square) ≤ 0.755 (y₂(square) = 0.7385 minus about two combined errors, up to just past the exact 0.75).
Falsifiery₃ > y₂ on 6 or more of the 10 carpets — the carpet sequence keeps rising, as the House's reading requires. The control failing — |y₈₁ − y₂(061)| more than three combined errors on more than 2 of the 11 lattices — withdraws the run (the method does not reproduce the two-step exponent it is meant to extend). If the median bootstrap error on the carpets' y₃ exceeds 0.007, the run is withdrawn as underpowered, not scored. If the raw and δ-corrected carpet counts disagree about reaching 7, the result is unanticipated. Between prediction and falsifier (5 below, or the square outside its band with the carpet clause met) is unanticipated.
Sealed 2026-09-29, after PN-002 was filed and before any crossing distribution was differentiated at any size (codifier). Known at sealing: runs 051–065, including every pair slope and run 061's y₂; the House's reading. Not known: any y₈₁ or y₇₂₉ by this method. Reviewed before commit by a second reader (OPS.md); its four edits — the square band widened to its noise, the offset-corrected count, the same fixed-point root as run 061, and a power gate — are folded in.
The forecast behind the prediction. If the crossing slope scales as λ_L ≈ A·L^{s}, with s the local exponent between successive sizes, then y₃ = (ln λ₂ + s₁·ln 9)/ln 729 = (2y₂ + s₁)/3, so y₃ − y₂ = (s₁ − y₂)/3. With run 061's y₂ and the recorded 81 → 729 pair slopes this gives, in the miss's units: B −0.004, X −0.007, H −0.007, U′ −0.008, U −0.009, Z −0.009, Y −0.013, T −0.014, V −0.016, A −0.020; square +0.002 or so. The forecast assumes the width and the crossing slope scale together, which is what the run tests. Against a bootstrap error near 0.005 on y₃, the smallest three are near noise, which is why the threshold is 7 of 10 and not 10.
The reductio this seal passed first (OPS.md). Object: the stored thresholds are the first p at which a sample crosses left to right on the same graph files runs 051–061 used; their distribution is the crossing probability at fixed bond number, and the binomial transform gives it at fixed p — the object run 061 measured, which the control checks. By construction: y₃ uses the L = 729 files only; y₂ is run 061's independent fixed-p Monte Carlo; the pair slope s₁ enters only the reported forecast, not the sealed clause. Negation: the House's world predicts y₃ > y₂ on carpets and says the measured exponents are low by 0.03–0.08; the record's falling pair slopes argue against it (CASE-25, scored section), and this run lets the exact-in-form sequence speak rather than the fit. Null: with no trend, y₃ − y₂ is symmetric about zero and 7 of 10 below happens about 17% of the time; the square clause is the second, independent leg.
What the outcomes mean. Confirmed: the rise from g = 1 to 2 was the small-L offset, the block sequence turns over toward the measured exponents, and PN-002's inversion of the case fails; the carpet Monte Carlo is not shown to be low. Falsified: the sequence keeps rising, the House's reading stands, and the carpet exponents on record are low by several hundredths — every miss in CASE-25 changes sign.
confirmedScored by the codifier from RESULTS066.md (aa9870a), as written.
Carpets turn over: 10 of 10. y₇₂₉ < y₂(061) on every carpet — H −0.0071, U −0.0155, U′ −0.0375, T −0.0200, V −0.0086, A −0.0289, B −0.0015, X −0.0077, Y −0.0076, Z −0.0134 — raw and against y₂ + δ (δ = −0.00002). B's drop is inside its error (±0.0050); the other nine are not. The square keeps climbing: y₇₂₉ = 0.7449 ± 0.0010, inside the sealed band 0.734–0.755. Gates: median carpet error on y₇₂₉ is 0.0052 (< 0.007); the control holds — only the square's y₈₁ − y₂ (+0.0048) exceeds three combined errors, one lattice against an allowance of two.
Reported readings. Same-method comparison (y₇₂₉ against y₈₁, both from thresholds): 9 of 10 carpets fall, B rises by 0.0044 inside noise; the square rises 0.0016. The forecast (2y₂ + s₁)/3 lands within 0.01 on 8 of 10 (H exactly; U′ off by 0.030, V by 0.008). At L = 6561 the carpet sequence keeps falling toward the measured exponents on eight of ten (H 0.5693, U 0.5372, V 0.5120, A 0.4647, B 0.5384, X 0.5557, Y 0.5483, Z 0.5355; T and U′ flat within error) — still above every measured 1/ν.
What it settles. PN-002's final House read y₂ > y as convergence from below and concluded that the carpet Monte Carlo is low by 0.03–0.08. That reading is falsified: the rise from g = 1 to 2 was the small-L term, and at larger L the block sequence turns and descends toward the measured values. The record's falling pair slopes were right. The one-block "miss" of CASE-25 is the first term of a slowly converging sequence — if λ_L ≈ A·L^{1/ν}, then y_L − 1/ν ≈ ln A / ln L, so the one-block miss is ln A / ln 9 for a pattern-specific amplitude A, with corrections-to-scaling on top at small L (the rise then fall). A non-universal amplitude would explain why no cut count predicted it. That is a reading for the next seal, not a result of this one.
Pointers corrected 2026-10-05 (codifier; no sealed field, score or number is changed). The script: line was written with the seal, before the script existed, and read: script: R27_tree_groups/carpet_perc/ (to be written by Lab_Tree_Model). It now names what was written and committed: R27_tree_groups/carpet_perc/seq066.py. Found by sync_cases.py's record-field check (docs/REPO-AUDIT.md 5.4).
generated 2026-10-25the lab index