run 072Settled
../lab/runs/072-skewness-fingerprint.mdPrediction(A) Reproducible: for all three of X, Y, Z, the reseed difference in g₁ is within 2 combined errors. (B) Stable with size: on at least 70% of the carpets with both sizes readable (10 of 14 if all are), g₁ at 729 and at 6561 agree within 2 combined errors. Confirmed if A and B both hold.
Falsifier(A) 2 or 3 of X, Y, Z differ beyond 3 combined errors across reseeds — skewness is sampling noise; the run is falsified and B is reported only. (B) more than 40% of the readable carpets (6 or more of 14) differ beyond 3 combined errors across sizes — skewness is still moving with L. Outcomes between prediction and falsifier on either clause are unanticipated. The run is falsified if either clause is falsified. The twin comparison decides nothing; if A and B hold, a twin clause is sealed next on fresh reseeds of the twins.
Sealed 2026-09-30, after run 069 was scored and before any skewness error, reseed skewness or 729-size skewness was computed (codifier). Known at sealing: run 069's reported g₁ at L = 6561 for the fourteen carpets and the square (the numbers the lead rests on), and a normal-theory error of about 0.027. Not known: bootstrap errors (heavy tails would widen them), any g₁ at L = 729, any g₁ from run 061's samples.
The reductio this seal passed first. Object: the same stored samples and standardization as run 069, so the moment is taken on the object whose KS distance was flat. By construction: the twin separation was suggested by the very numbers it would test, so it is reported only; the scored clauses are the ones no number on hand answers (reseed and size stability). Null: if skewness were pure noise, reseed differences would be about √2 times one error, and 2 of 3 beyond 3 errors would be rare. Negation: a world where skewness drifts with L shows g₁ changing between 729 and 6561 on most carpets — the carpets' falling local slopes make that a live possibility, which is why clause B exists. Cost: minutes, stored data only. Reviewed before commit by a second reader (OPS.md); its seven edits — the twin clause moved to reported, the Y/Y1 exclusion removed with it, the shared-X dependence made moot, one outcome rule for clause A, raw skewness bootstrapped without standardization, a rule for missing files, and the claim narrowed to the carpets tested — are folded in.
confirmedScored by the codifier from RESULTS072.md (86143cd), as written. Every file was present and readable (8,000 samples each), so no comparison is unscored.
(A) Reproducible — holds. Reseed differences at L = 6561, run 061 against run 063: X −0.88, Y +0.72, Z −1.63 combined errors, all within 2. Bootstrap errors (0.026–0.042) came out close to the normal-theory 0.027; the tails did not widen them much.
(B) Stable with size — holds, at its floor. Ten of fourteen carpets agree between 729 and 6561 within 2 combined errors, exactly the 70% the clause asks for. Two differ beyond 3 (T +5.16, X −3.22), well short of the falsifier's six. Beyond 2 but within 3: Z −2.83, X1 +2.54.
What the pass does not say. Four of fourteen beyond 2 errors, where noise gives about 0.6, has probability about 0.3%. So skewness is reproducible at a fixed size, but on some carpets it is still moving with L: T falls from +0.36 to +0.17, X and Z rise, X1 falls. The clause was written for exactly this worry, and it passed by the smallest margin it allowed.
Consequence for the twin clause, reported. The seal's next step is a twin clause on fresh reseeds. The size drift reaches the twins. At 6561 the twin ordering is the lead's (X above X1 by +4.33, above X2 by +5.67, Z above Z1 by +3.18). At 729, from the same table, X/X1 reverses sign (−1.43), X/X2 holds (+4.41), and Z/Z1 weakens (+1.94). A twin clause must therefore name its size: fixed at 6561, with 729 reported. The X/X1 ordering is itself size-dependent on the stored samples.
Reported: skewness is not a proxy for the exponent. Spearman(g₁ at 6561, 1/ν) over the fourteen carpets is +0.156 (Pearson −0.003). If skewness separates twins, it does so as a second coordinate, not as a restatement of 1/ν. The square stays at zero within error at both sizes (+0.009, +0.011).
generated 2026-10-25the lab index