run 076Falsified
../lab/runs/076-two-map-deviation.mdPrediction(A) First order. The interquartile range of s over the 49 distinct functions is at least 0.2 × the median |s|; and on pairs with 0 < |δ| ≤ 0.01 and |s_A − s_B| ≥ 0.1 × median |s| (count reported), the median of |D/D₁ − 1| is at most 0.1. (B) Both signs. D < 0 on at least 5% of the pairs with |δ| > 0.02 (976 pairs at sealing). (C) Cut class does not protect. Bin all pairs by |δ| into quintiles; within each bin take the median |D| of equal-C₁ pairs over the median |D| of unequal-C₁ pairs, dropping bins with fewer than 5 pairs on either side; the median of the bin ratios is at least 0.5. (D) Separation beats class. The partial Spearman correlation of |D| with |ΔC₁| controlling for |δ| (average ranks for ties) is below 0.15 in absolute value. Confirmed if all four hold.
Falsifier(A) IQR(s) below 0.05 × median |s| (s effectively constant, D₁ ≡ 0, and the House's second-order statement stands), or on the filtered set the median of |D/D₁ − 1| exceeds 0.5. (B) D < 0 on fewer than 1% of the pairs with |δ| > 0.02: the surplus is effectively forced. (C) the median bin ratio is below 0.2: at equal separation, equal cut class keeps the map close to averaging. (D) the partial Spearman exceeds 0.3 in absolute value. Each clause is scored on its own: the run is falsified if any clause is falsified, confirmed if all four hold, unanticipated otherwise. A clause whose set has fewer than 10 pairs (or, for C, fewer than 3 usable bins) is unscorable; with any clause unscorable the run cannot be confirmed, and with fewer than three scorable it is unanticipated unless a scored clause is falsified.
Sealed 2026-09-30, after panel PN-004 was filed and before any two-map value beyond the four recorded pairs was computed (codifier). Known at sealing: every pattern's p*, λ, y₉, C₁ and N₁ (census); run 075's polynomials and g₁ values; the four recorded pairs' y_AB. Not known: any other pair's y_AB or D, any pattern's R″(p*) or s. Counted from census p* and C₁ only, before sealing: 49 distinct functions, 1,176 pairs; 123 with 0 < |δ| ≤ 0.01; 976 with |δ| > 0.02; |δ| quintile cuts 0.023, 0.050, 0.086, 0.123 with (equal C₁, unequal C₁) pairs per bin (154, 82), (144, 91), (104, 131), (60, 175), (10, 225). C₁ bands of p*: cut 2 0.801–0.943, cut 3 0.827–0.860, cut 4 0.684–0.827, cut 5 0.665–0.715.
Where the first-order term comes from. ln R_A′(r) − ln λ_A ≈ (a_A/λ_A)(r − p*_A) and likewise for B. The linearized 2-cycle, r₁ − p*_B = λ_B(q₁ − p*_B) and q₁ − p*_A = λ_A(r₁ − p*_A), gives r₁ − p*_A = δ(λ_B − 1)/(λ_Aλ_B − 1) and q₁ − p*_B = −δ(λ_A − 1)/(λ_Aλ_B − 1), both inside the interval, and so the closed form above. The House's second-order statement is the special case s_A = s_B for every pattern. The codifier checked the expansion on made-up cubic maps, R(x) = p + λ(x − p) + (a/2)(x − p)² + c(x − p)³ with (p, λ, a, c) = (0.70, 3.0, 1.0, 0.3) for A and (p_B, 2.5, −2.0, −0.2) for B, p_B = 0.72, 0.701, 0.7001: D/D₁ = 0.996, 0.9998, 0.99998. Control (ii) repeats that check in the lab's code.
Why B, C and D. To first order D < 0 exactly when s_A < s_B with p*_A < p*_B, so clause B asks whether s fails to decrease monotonically with p*; Kendall τ(p*, s) is reported. The recorded X,Y pair is already negative. Nothing in the expansion refers to C₁; clauses C and D ask the data to agree once δ is held fixed, since C₁ and p* are themselves correlated (the bands above), so a raw comparison would pass by construction.
Reported, not scored. D against δ, δ², ΔC₁, Δy₉ and Δ(measured 1/ν) where both parents are measured; Kendall τ(p*, s); the log-log slope of |D| on |δ|; D₁ against D over the whole range of δ with the |δ| beyond which |D/D₁ − 1| first exceeds 0.2; the 20 largest |D|. For the seat record (PN-004): cut-4 pairs with |δ| > 0.03 and the share with D > +0.003 (Bound); the cut-4 pair with the largest |Δy₉| (Lateral: +0.008 to +0.016); every cut-4 pair with |δ| ≥ 0.15 (the House's test 1; none exists at sealing, since cut-4 p* spans 0.684–0.827, a width of 0.143) and the widest cut-4 pair instead.
The reductio this seal passed first. Object: y_AB is the same one-block 2-cycle value runs 067 and 070 computed, extended to every pair; control (i) ties it to those. By construction, caught: a first draft scored D against D₁ without asking whether s varies (a Taylor theorem wherever it does), compared raw Spearmans of |D| on |δ| and on |ΔC₁| (passes because C₁ tracks p*), and set a threshold on equal-C₁ pairs with no comparison group; all three are replaced above. Null: if D were second order with a fixed sign, clause A's first part and clause B fail. Negation: a world where cut class matters for the map at fixed separation shows equal-C₁ bins with much smaller |D|; clause C is written for it. Cost: minutes.
Reviewed before commit by a second reader (OPS.md); its eight edits are folded in: clause A rebuilt around the spread of s with a filtered ratio test; the toy check and a translated-pair check made controls; a first-order reading of clause B; clause C made a comparison at matched separation; clause D made a partial correlation; set sizes counted from the census before sealing; exact root counting for the 2-cycle; and rules for merged patterns and unscorable clauses.
falsifiedScored by the codifier from RESULTS076.md (991d9e3), as written; the clause-A set computed from pairs076_raw.json by the seal's definitions. Controls (i)–(iii) pass; no pair has more than one root.
(A) First order — unanticipated. s varies widely: IQR 2.93 against median |s| 3.21 (ratio 0.91, far above 0.2), so D₁ is not identically zero and the House's "second order" statement is false. On the filtered set (0 < |δ| ≤ 0.01, |s_A − s_B| ≥ 0.32; 46 pairs) the median |D/D₁ − 1| is 0.23: between the prediction's 0.1 and the falsifier's 0.5. D approaches D₁ as δ → 0 (the top |Δs| quartile: median ratio 0.94; the translate control: D₁ = 0 and D ∝ h²), but the linear regime is narrow: by |δ| > 0.02 the median D/D₁ is 0.05–0.07. Beyond δ ≈ 0.01 the first-order term is almost entirely cancelled by higher orders.
(B) Both signs — confirmed. D < 0 on 319 of 976 pairs with |δ| > 0.02 (33%).
(C) Cut class does not protect — unanticipated, leaning against. At matched separation, equal-C₁ pairs have much smaller |D|: bin ratios 0.105, 0.153, 0.260, 0.328, 0.971 (median 0.260, between 0.2 and 0.5), with the first four bins at p ≤ 3e-3.
(D) Separation beats class — falsified. The partial Spearman of |D| with |ΔC₁| given |δ| is +0.596, beyond the falsifier's 0.3. Cut class carries information about the deviation that the fixed-point separation does not.
Outcome. Falsified on D. The codifier's reading — deviation set by the separation, cut class a confounded proxy — is wrong at the one-block level; so is the House's. The case's own framing (matched cut class averages) is closer to the one-block map than either rival.
Reported, read. |D| ranks best against |Δy₉| (Spearman 0.81) and |Δ(1/ν)| where measured (0.79), ahead of |δ| (0.77). D is positive when a high-cut, high-exponent pattern is stacked with a low-cut one (the twenty largest are all cut 5 or 4 with cut 2, D ≈ +0.017 to +0.021). s tracks p* almost monotonically (Kendall −0.91), so the first-order coefficient is nearly a function of p*; what cancels it beyond δ ≈ 0.01 is not known.
generated 2026-10-25the lab index