run 084Falsified
../lab/runs/084-ladder-first-scorable-rung.mdPrediction(A) The ladder recovers the carpet's order at the first clear rung, on the guarded sizes: s₃₄(X) − s₃₄(T), the local slope over 729→6561 by the recursion, exceeds +0.05 (the carpet's gap there is 0.18, 0.545 against 0.365; rung 1's three-size slopes were 0.30 against 0.33). (B) The turn is at the first clear rung: on T, g₁(level 4) − g₁(level 3) is below −0.03; on X it is at or above 0. Confirmed if both hold.
Falsifier(A) the difference at or below 0: the rung still has X at or below T, as rung 1 did. Between 0 and +0.05, unanticipated. (B) T's step at or above +0.03: the first clear rung rises like the one-bit map. Between −0.03 and +0.03, or X's step below −0.03, unanticipated. The run is falsified if either clause is falsified, confirmed if both hold, otherwise unanticipated. A falsified A with a confirmed B says the shape is recovered before the slope; a falsified B with a confirmed A says the slope is recovered before the shape; either is a statement about which the boundary state buys first.
Sealed 2026-10-01, after run 082 was withdrawn and before any rung-2, -3 or -5 quantity existed (codifier). Known at sealing, beyond run 082's seal: everything its lab saw before stopping, listed in run 082's scoring. Rung 1: wall guard 1.88, 2.78 (T) and 1.89, 2.58 (X) at L = 81 and 729; rough slopes 0.33 (T), 0.30 (X); the F4 share identically 1. The rung-2 state does not close on 8 terminals (its higher-level joins fall on the midpoint), so P-049's "4,140 partitions at k = 2" is wrong (it would be a partition of 12 cells) and k = 2 is not a rung of this run. The carpet: 1/ν 0.3743 (T), 0.5508 (X); g₁ steps 729→6561 −0.191 (T), +0.146 (X). The one-bit map: y₉ 0.4392, 0.5533; its g₁ steps k = 3→4 +0.118 (T), +0.049 (X). The gasket: 1/ν 0.26.
What changed from run 082. Three things. The rung is chosen by the wall guard in a committed stage, because rung 1 showed the guard fails before the pattern's shape can be read. Clause B of 082 ("between y₉ and the measured value") is replaced: the family lies below the carpet, so the question is whether it recovers the carpet's order of the two patterns, which rung 1 reversed. Control (i) is a goodness of fit over the grid, not a per-point threshold (OPS.md, 2026-10-01).
The codifier's lead, held with conviction, and where it was wrong. The one-bit map is not the ladder's bottom rung; it is on the far side of the carpet from the whole family. So the carpet is squeezed between a sequence rising from below (rungs) and one object above (the map). The lead now: the order of T and X comes back at a small rung (k* = 2 or 3), because the order is a slope and slopes are set by how much boundary a block exposes; the turn comes back at the same rung, because the route that makes it (through a block without crossing it) exists from k = 1 and only needs the wall out of the way to show. Where it breaks: if the guard clears only at k = 5, the rung has 20 terminals per block and the "finite number of boundary bits, and that number is small" clause of PG-01's conjecture is already strained; if it clears nowhere below 7, the ladder says the carpet's finite-size behaviour needs most of the boundary, and PG-01's conjecture is in trouble.
Power, stated. The recursion's g₁ error at 10⁶ draws is about 0.001–0.005, so B's margin is set by effect size, not noise, as in 082. A's margin of +0.05 against slope errors near 0.002 (recursion) is likewise an effect-size threshold; the carpet's gap is 0.18. A reads the 729→6561 slope because the guard is checked at levels 3 and 4 only; rung 1's guard at level 2 was 1.9, so the three-size slope would carry a wall-bound point.
The reductio this seal passed first. By construction: the rung is chosen on the guard alone, before any clause quantity is read, and the guard is a function of p* and w, not of the order or the turn. A is not implied by the guard: a rung can be clear of the wall and still order the patterns wrongly. Negation: if the turn needs the full boundary, every rung below 7 rises on T, and B's falsifier fires at the first clear rung; if the order needs it, A's does. A wall residue works against B's T clause and for its X clause: the guard rises with level (1.88 → 2.78 at rung 1), so a residual wall makes the 3→4 step positive; and the pattern that clears last (X at rung 1) is the more wall-shaped at k*. What a lone clause decides is in the falsifier line. Cost: stage 1, minutes per rung; stage 2's recursion is 2–3× run 082's per draw at k = 3 and 5–6× at k = 5 (more terminals, 84k joining bonds, 64 random reads into the level-g sample), so about 100 chain-hours at k = 3 and 250 at k = 5 across the 21 chains, parallel across chains; memory is one partition sample per worker with the per-grid-point organisation. The two L = 6561 lattices take about 45 minutes each on the M5 at 8 threads and share the machine with run 083's remaining lattices.
Reported, not scored. - Stage 1 in full: p*(g), w(g), G(g) for k = 3, 5, both patterns, g = 1 … 4; the rungs that qualified. - At k*: everything run 082 reported. The F4 share (R − R̃)/R is expected identically 1 on both patterns at k = 3 and 5 (a projected block passes only straight through along a designated row; T has a hole in every row 1–7, and X keeps only rows 2 and 6, which are not designated at these k); it is reported, not read. The slopes s₂₃, s₃₄ and their mean at k* beside rung 1's rough values, the carpet and the one-bit map, in one table; the connectivity among the midpoint terminals reported separately. - Every rung below k*: the coarse pass's slopes and steps, so the approach is visible where it is not scored. - Control (i)'s rms z restricted to grid points with N·R(1 − R) ≥ 10, with the count of points stated.
Reviewed before commit by a second reader (OPS.md); its edits are folded in: k = 2 dropped (its state does not close on 8 terminals); the terminal flags and R stated identically for both computations; clause A moved to the guarded local slope; the stage-1 rule given a resolution step and a margin; the F4 share correctly called trivial at these rungs; the stage-2 organisation and cost restated.
falsifiedScored by the codifier from RESULTS084.md, rung084.json and lattice084.json (3913aa1), as written. A scoring reader (OPS.md) read the note against the results before commit; its edits are folded in.
Controls first — all three pass. (i) The level-1 recursion against the exact polynomial: rms z 0.982 on both patterns (sealed band [0.90, 1.10]), largest |z| 3.91 (T) and 3.98 (X) against 4.5, over 1,083 and 1,358 grid points; the designated-terminal crossing is at or below the column-to-column one at every point on both. (ii) Construction on all six lad3 lattices: 3 bonds on every aligned segment between kept blocks, 84 bonds per level-1 block, terminal flags on the three designated cells of each side. (iii) Recursion against lattice at levels 2 and 3, g₁ and w on both patterns: all eight within 3 combined errors (largest +2.26). Stage 1 chose k* = 3 on the wall guard before any stage-2 draw (guards 9.4 and 22.3 on T, 11.3 and 23.6 on X at levels 3 and 4).
(A) Falsified. s₃₄(X) − s₃₄(T) = −0.131 ± 0.007 by the recursion (0.3005 against 0.4318), at or below 0: rung 3 has X below T, as rung 1 did, where the carpet has X above T by 0.18. The lattice agrees (0.315 against 0.444). (B) Falsified. T's skewness rises from level 3 to level 4 by +0.510 ± 0.006 (0.322 → 0.832), at or above +0.03: the first clear rung rises, and steeply. X's rises by +1.366 (the X half held as predicted; B falls on T alone). Both clauses falsified; the run is falsified. The codifier's lead — the order and the turn both come back at a small rung — was wrong on both.
What the numbers say beyond the clauses.
What it does to PG-01. L2's first scorable rung recovers neither the order nor the turn, so scaffold S1's first removal attempt fails: three boundary cells per side, at these rows, do not make the block's recursion resemble the carpet's lattice. That is not yet "it falls at every finite k" — the carpet is no finite rung but the limit in which the designated set grows with the level (P-049), and item 4 says the rows may matter — but the conjecture's "that number is small" now has one scored rung, on one choice of rows, against it and none for it. The next seal under L2 is the same rung on S₃′ = {2, 4, 6}: if the order returns there, the boundary datum is which cells and not how many; if it does not, the next rung is 5 — whose S₅ = {1, 3, 4, 5, 7} also omits rows 2 and 6 — and the conjecture's last clause is strained.
Lab notes. M5, with runs 083, 085, 087 and 092's short runs sharing the machine at times; the 40 replicate chains and one lattice were suspended in place for two hours on 1 October so run 083 could finish, with no stream changed. The level-up kernel was replaced before any stage-2 result by one bit-identical to stage 1's on six test points at 2–3× the speed. Replicates finished 2 October 15:16 local (22:16 UTC on the log).
generated 2026-10-25the lab index