run 138Open
../lab/runs/138-the-comb-its-moving-step-and-a-fixed-one-at-6561.mdPredictionThe hypotheses under test, not the forecast (that is in pre_seal_glimpse). (T) Present: chi2_3 is at least 17.23 in every declared member. (D1) The step moves: a step is detected in U6 (dRSS_up at least 25 and s_up at most -0.05). (D2) It moves by the comb's own period: with the U6 step detected, ln F-hat is below the midpoint of ln P-hat_i and ln 8 for every declared member i, and below ln 8 - 0.025. (D3) A second step stays at a fixed burst mass near 8^5: in N6, dRSS_lo is at least 25 and s_lo at most -0.055.
Falsifier(T) chi2_3 is below 12.69 in at least one declared member: some declared background removes the tooth. (D1) No step is detected in U6 while N6 holds one (dRSS_lo at least 25 and s_lo at most -0.05): the step stayed where it was. (D2) With the U6 step detected, ln F-hat is at least ln 8 - 0.025: it moves by 8. (D3) dRSS_lo is below 10, or s_lo is above -0.05: no fixed step beyond the dip that the moved bulk alone leaves in N6. A clause that meets neither its prediction nor its falsifier is unanticipated. D2 is not scored if no step is detected in U6, and it then counts as unanticipated in the run outcome. Withdrawn if a control fails. Fit quality against the noise floor is reported and never withdraws. Run outcome (the combining rule): withdrawn if a control fails; otherwise falsified if any clause's falsifier fired; otherwise confirmed if all four clauses are confirmed; otherwise unanticipated. Reading table. T present: a 3/2 tooth that survives every declared background on the H8 window with both steps modelled. T falsified: a background the set already holds absorbs it. D1 moves: the top-end step grows with the system. D1 falsified: it is a burst-mass feature that stays. D2 nearer P: the moving step rides the bursts' own cutoff, which repeats by P. D2 falsified: it rides the block hierarchy (8 per level). D3 present: a second, fixed feature near the block mass 8^5 exists beside the moving one. D3 falsified: what sits near 8^5 at L = 6561 is no larger than the moved bulk's dip.
Run 137 asked three things of the comb at L = 6561 and was withdrawn on a defect of its own seal. Control (iii) gave its targets as integers but its tolerance as 1e−6 in ln m. At m ≈ 3.5 × 10⁴, one unit of m is 2.9 × 10⁻⁵ in ln, so a correct implementation could not pass. Its draws are spent, and what it read is now a glimpse. This draft asks the questions again on 32,000 fresh H8 draws and 32,000 fresh H7 anchor draws, with four changes.
Every tooth fit models both steps. In the worlds with a fixed step, run 137's one-window statistic locks onto the low feature in about 70% of replicas. 3. The clauses are restated for what 137 read. T is now predicted present. D1 asks whether a step appears in U6. D2 needs no gate: its prediction is "nearer P" and its falsifier is "moves by 8", and at the error H8 gives that falsifier has power 0.95 or more. D3 is new: is there a fixed step near 8⁵ at L = 6561 beyond what the moved bulk leaves there? 4. 32,000 H8 draws, not 16,000, because D3's falsifier needs it (below).
| L = 2187 (anchor) | L = 6561 | |
|---|---|---|
| tooth window in ln m | [ln 32, ln 48,000], 7.313 | [ln 32, ln 384,000], 9.393 |
| cycles of the fundamental in the window (P 7.30 / 7.45 / 7.55) | 3.68 / 3.64 / 3.62 | 4.72 / 4.68 / 4.65 |
| resolution, about one cycle per window | 0.137 cycles (0.859 radians) per ln m | 0.106 cycles (0.669 radians) per ln m |
| adjacent teeth, 1/(2 ln P) at P 7.45 | 0.249 cycles (1.564 radians) per ln m, 1.82 resolution units | the same, 2.34 resolution units |
| sampling step of the tooth bins in ln m (largest) | 0.1210 | 0.1195 |
| Nyquist | 4.13 cycles (25.97 radians) per ln m | 4.18 cycles (26.28 radians) per ln m |
| highest harmonic of the fundamental below Nyquist | 8th (tooth index 16) | 8th (tooth index 16) |
| highest tooth fitted | k = 6 | k = 6 |
The step statistic uses bins of ratio 1.02: step 0.0198 nominal and 0.0377 largest, so Nyquist is 13.25 cycles (83.24 radians) per ln m, the 26th harmonic. Each candidate's local fit is 5.0 wide in ln m (2.49 cycles of the fundamental). N6 is 0.811 wide (0.40 cycles) and U6 is 1.339 wide (0.67 cycles).
The two steps sit about ln P apart, 1.99 to 2.08 in ln m, which is one period of the fundamental. So a step that moves by P lands at the same comb phase. D2's readings, P and 8, are 0.058 to 0.105 apart in ln m. Both of these are positions, set by the counts and by the step's sharpness (a width of 0.04, two bins), not frequencies. §9's limit does not bind them.
The ruler is zoom by b on burst size, m → b m, so x = ln m → x + ln b.
| term | unit | under m → b m | closed how |
|---|---|---|---|
| y = ln(count/width) | log of a density | a power law shifts by a constant | the data, not a column |
| 1, x, x², P₃ … P₆ | (ln m)ⁿ | each mixes into lower degrees | as the family, one free coefficient per degree |
| m/384,000 | a ratio of like quantities, pure | scales by b | alone: its coefficient absorbs b |
| the two step columns in each member, Φ(ln(m/m_lo)/0.04), Φ(ln(m/m_up)/0.04) | pure | unchanged: m_lo and m_up are measured on the same draws and ride the zoom | one free coefficient each |
| tooth k pair | tooth k, k/(2 ln P) cycles per ln m | its phase rotates by k π ln b / ln P radians | as a pair with two free coefficients |
| A4's u cos, u sin on tooth 2 (reported row) | tooth 2 times a pure u | u shifts, mixing into tooth 2 | with tooth 2's pair |
| 1, (x − x_d), (x − x_d)² in the step model | (ln m)ⁿ | unchanged when x_d rides the zoom | as the family |
| the other step's column in a U6 fit | pure | unchanged when m_lo rides the zoom | one free coefficient |
| the step Φ(ln(m/m_d)/0.04) | pure; its argument is the log of a ratio of like quantities | unchanged when m_d rides the zoom | one free coefficient s |
| F̂ = m_up / m_d(2187) | pure | invariant |
The check passes for every member and for the two-window step model. Its largest residual is 2.0e−14 (h8b_premise.log, section Z). A passing check says which numbers are meaningful. It never says what they are worth.
| clause | outcome | world (estimate) | rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| T | falsified (some member < 12.69) | no tooth: 15 rows (combs 7.30 to 7.55, fixed step or not, φ × 4.5) | 0.86 to 0.99 |
| T | present | tooth at ¼ of M8's size (combs 7.30, 7.45, 7.55) | 0.77 / 0.98 / 1.00 |
| T | falsified | the same ¼ tooth | at most 0.09 |
| D1 | falsified (no step in U6, one in N6) | the step stays (combs 7.30, 7.45) | 0.97 |
| D1 | moves | every moving world (16 rows) | 1.00 |
| D2 | falsified (ln F̂ ≥ ln 8 − 0.025) | moves by 8 (combs 7.30, 7.55; fixed step or not; φ × 4.5) | 0.95 to 0.96 |
| D2 | nearer P | moves by P: 7.30 / 7.45 / 7.55 / comb 7.55 with shift 7.45 | 0.98 / 0.87–0.92 / 0.70–0.80 / 0.96 |
| D2 | falsified | moves by P | at most 0.04 |
| D3 | falsified (s_lo above −0.05 or dRSS_lo < 10) | no fixed step (6 rows) | 0.86 to 0.93 |
| D3 | present (dRSS_lo ≥ 25, s_lo ≤ −0.055) | fixed step −0.05 / −0.03 | 0.99–1.00 / 0.74–0.87 |
| D3 | present | no fixed step | 0.02 to 0.03 |
| D3 | falsified | fixed step −0.03 | at most 0.12 |
At 16,000 H8 draws, the size run 137 used, T, D1 and D2 keep their power: their falsifiers reach at least 0.95, 1.00 and 0.87. D3's falsifier, though, falls to 0.68 to 0.80, below 0.7 in the φ × 4.5 row.
With two step columns, the members' P̂ follow the comb: 7.12 to 7.20 at 7.30, 7.24 to 7.30 at 7.45, and 7.32 to 7.40 at 7.55. D2 needs no gate. Its falsifier, "moves by 8", keeps a power of 0.95 or more whatever the comb, and a comb near 7.55 only weakens the prediction.
The run's outcome is: - withdrawn if a control fails; - otherwise falsified if any clause's falsifier fired; - otherwise confirmed if all four clauses are confirmed; - otherwise unanticipated.
A clause that is not scored counts as unanticipated. D2 is not scored when no step is detected in U6.
None of these is scored: - For each member: P̂ with its jackknife error, the P̂ spread over the set, a3, b3, |A3/2|/|A1|, both step columns' amplitudes, φ, the floor and RSS/floor; and the reported row A4. - Alternative step columns: the set with run 137's single step column at the one-window m_d, and with no step column. - The step at each L: m_d(2187), m_lo and m_up, each with its step size, dRSS, jackknife and five-group split errors and the five groups' positions. - Run 137's one-window statistic on these draws. - dRSS and s at named masses: at 32,768 and at m_d(2187); and at 8 × m_d(2187) and P̂ × m_d(2187) in U6. - The fresh anchor: its m_d beside the stored 34,634 and run 137's 35,576. - Profiles: the comb-cancelled residual profile at both L, and the 6561 window's cutoff region.
As written. The lab chat reads this file above "Not part of the seal" only, plus comb137.py, h8_premise.py, h8b_premise.py, perc_inv.c and MANUAL.md's Lab conventions. It pins comb138.py's md5 before any draw, commits without --no-verify, and discloses memory in its first line (MANUAL, Lab conventions).
generated 2026-10-25the lab index